Washington, DC, October 28, 2025 --  

A Republican report on Biden's mental decline and Trump's talk of a third term seem oblivious to Trump's own mortality.

When President Trump once again mused to Air Force One reporters about an unconstitutional third term as president¹, anti-Trumpers predictably howled with anger. This is in the wake of MAGA cheerleader Steve Bannon telling the Economist magazine last week that he is certain President Trump will get a third term and there is a plan to make this happen.²

Yet Trump's Republican allies in the House released a report this morning that undermines this plan. Ostensibly about former President Biden's mental decline while in office, the House report alleges a coverup by administration officials who performed presidential functions on behalf of a president with mental failings preventing the execution of his duties.³ With the Biden administration an artifact of history, the report's real importance is that it offers a vision of Trump's own downfall.

At age 79, President Trump is the same age as Biden was when symptoms of his mental decline allegedly began to show. Actuarial tables suggest Trump has 8 years left to live, barely enough to live out his current term and the unconstitutional one he says he'd enjoy.

Trump's father Fred Trump was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease in 1991 at age 86 and by the time he attended the President's 1993 wedding, family remembers recalled he had no idea why he was there.⁴ The president's older sister Maryanne, who died last fall at age 86, was showing symptoms of dementia according to her nephew.⁵

If Trump is mentally fit to campaign for an unconstitutional third term in 2028, he will be 82 years old, just a few years shy of when his father and sister were known to be suffering from dementia. As in the Biden administration, his aides will do their best to cover up for the president's failings. Unlike the Biden administration, whose members were chosen for their abilities, competence and qualifications, Trump's White House staff was chosen largely for being unquestionably loyal and disturbingly telegenic. If a capable Biden staff failed to hide the president's mental decline from the American people, can Trump's pretty but middling sycophants manage any better?

Of course there is no telling exactly when President Trump will begin his own mental decline, should he even live that long. While Alzheimer's clearly runs in the family, it may not strike President Trump soon or at all. His own father was not diagnosed until aged 86, an age that a President Trump could only reach in an unconstitutional third term. But the president faces additional risk factors for dementia that his father did not have, notably his high body mass index that puts him on the high end of being overweight, making him nearly obese.

If Trump's decline does begin this presidential term, it may not be obvious at first. Early signs of Alzheimers include forgetfulness and mood swings, two things that have been part of Trump's personality long enough to be independent from any age-related decline. And if those presidential behaviors get worse, who is to say if it is just natural variation vs. a sign of imminent rapid decline?

President Biden's decline only became obvious during a disastrous first presidential debate with Donald Trump in June ofd last year. And if Trump does attempt a third term, it is unlikely he will be engaging in any debates. If you are willing and able to circumvent the Constitution to stay in office, why bow to mere traditions like presidential debates?

Like all of us, Trump faces inevitable mental decline as he ages. The only question is if he will live long enough to see it happen significantly. The risk to his political future comes not just from public perception but from his own staff. Some ofd his sycophantic underlings are true believers in the MAGA cult leader. Others are just opportunists kissing up to the big man until they have the chance to break out on their own. Any high profile Trump Alzheimers moments in private are at high of being leaked by the more ambitious members of his inner circle.

Will any of this ever happen? Maybe or maybe not. President Trump makes plenty of eyebrow raising decisions that risk both his political future and personal health. Many of these decisions could end his career before dementia has a chance to do so. But given enough time -- especially with extra four years -- such a downfall becomes an increasingly likely possibility.

Notes:

1. The Hill, Trump on Seeking a Third Term: 'I Would Love to Do It', October 27, 2025

2. Economist, Inside the Mind of MAGA: a Conversation With Steve Bannon, October 23, 2025

3. Politico, House GOP Concludes investigation Into Biden's Alleged Mental Decline, October 28, 2025

4. Washington Post, Shadowing Trump's Attacks on Mental Fitness — His Own Father's Dementia , March 20, 2024

5. People, Donald Trump's Nephew Recalls Grandpa's Dementia Symptoms as He Warns of Former President's 'Decline', November 3, 2024