Washington, DC, June 11, 2024 --  

The rise of populism in France and the United States threatens to break the back of the anti-Russian alliance.

When right-wing parties won the vast majority of districts in France's vote in European elections on Sunday¹, it dealt a severe blow to President Emmanuel Macron's project to rally Europe to fight Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  Macron has since called snap parliamentary elections  to shore up his support, but polls predict the far right will win those elections and might even seize control of parliament.²

The Dwindling Alliance NATO countries with flagging support for Ukraine in orange, the rest in light blue.

This political earthquake has grave consequences beyond France's borders as Macron has taken up the baton to lead Europe in the fight against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its aggression against other countries on Europe's eastern flank.  With polls in America continuing to show a high risk of former President Donald Trump re-taking the White House in November, Macron has tried to take the reigns of the fight against Russia.  He has even tried to convince fellow Europeans to consider sending ground troops to Ukraine.

Macron's call for a snap election is risky.  He hopes to regain the initiative by appealing to French voters who may have voted for Marie Le Pen's National Rally party in European Union Parliament elections (partly out of  protest), knowing that  the EU Parliament makeup is relatively inconsequential.  His best case electoral scenario is to lose, but not lose badly enough to get an opposition prime minister who will block weapons funding for Ukraine.  

Unlike some right-wing parties in Europe, Le Pen's National Rally has not been overtly pro-Russia.  But though Le Pen has voiced sympathy for Ukraine, she has also been far more skeptical of French assistance, warning that a Ukrainian victory could lead to World War III.  Her candidate for Prime Minister is the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, often described has her puppet.  If the party prevails in parliamentary elections, a Prime Minister Bardella is unlikely to back Macron's project to lead Europe's fight against Russia.

President Macron has vowed not to resign should he lose control of parliament.  But this outcome would severely limit his power and blunt his foreign policy goals.  Legally he can still hold office until his term ends in 2027.  But even if he remains in office, he most certainly won't be leading the fight.

Who will?  Certainly not Donald Trump should he be America's president. He's more likely to seek to pull the United States out of NATO and throw Ukraine to the Russian wolf. And probably not a Democrat American president either, given that the US Congress is expected to be even more under the control of pro-Russia Republicans who may again block future aid to Ukraine just like their French counterparts in the National Rally Party.

The next most likely to take the lead in the fight? Maybe Keir Starmer, the current Labor Party leader int the UK, should he defeat Rishi Sunak and win the election scheduled for July 4. Other than France and Russia, the UK is the only other nuclear power in Europe. And while the UK is no longer part of the EU, it is most certainly a member of NATO, and the best bet to lead the alliance against Russia if both France and the United States are dragged out of the fight by right-wing populists. Just don't expect the UK and its dwindling band of anti-Russia NATO allies to keep Ukraine armed without the United States and France around to help.

The sad truth is that inward-looking populists in America and France have little interest in international politics.  They just want to keep people with funny last names outside of their borders so they can proceed to ignore them. Such beliefs are self-defeating and dumb, and will ultimately come back to haunt them. But in the short-term, it is the Ukrainian people who will suffer the consequences.

Notes:

1. The Connection, Far-Right Win French EU Elections: How Did Your Area of France Vote?June 11, 2024

2. Reuters, France's Far-Right National Rally Projected to Win Snap Election Without Absolute Majority, June 11, 2024