Washington, DC, June 13, 2023 --  

Another coup attempt in Russia has failed. How long will it be before the next one?

The retreat of Wagner forces before they reached Moscow was clearly good news for Russian President Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to what happened 22 years ago -- the failure of that coup was hardly good news for Gorbachev.   His authority was permanently weakened, and de-facto power quickly shifted to his underling, Boris Yeltsin. He engineered a path to seize supreme power four months later by allowing the “Union Treaty” to expire without renewal, dissolving the Soviet Union and making Yeltsin, who happened to hold the post of President of the Russian Republic, top dog in Moscow.  Amazingly, the collapse of the Soviet empire was merely the means to the end of Yeltsin’s post-coup power grab.

Last weekend's rebellion by Pirgozhin’s Wagner troops was every bit as much a coup attempt — no matter what the mercenary chief says.  He likely hoped that Putin’s lieutenants — inside the military and out — would offer their loyalty to him over Defense Minister Sergei  Shoigu as Wagner’s  army rolled toward Moscow.  If that had happened, he would have been in a position much like Yeltsin in the fall of 1991.   While Putin would still have been nominally in charge, Pirgozhin would be able to present himself as Russia’s savior, holding de-facto power that he could use to engineer Putin’s ultimate ouster.

Pirgozhin’s coup failed (like most coups fail) because he failed to get the necessary pledges of loyalty as he approached the throne.  His agreement to back down and go into exile in Belarus was an attempt to save his own neck in exchange for stopping a deadly and embarrassing assault on Moscow.

What this means for Putin’s future is the subject of much speculation.  Many dreamy-eyed Westerners see Putin as weakened by the experience, and think his days may be numbered.  America’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken talks of cracks being exposed in the Putin regime.

But history shows that authoritarian leaders who survive coup attempts are often strengthened by the experience. Two recent examples are Turkey’s President  Tayyip Erdoğan and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  In their cases, failed coups allowed them to erode civil institutions in favor of one man rule and emerge stronger than ever before.

The most likely scenario is that Putin’s fate will follow this path.  He will use the coup attempt to root out disloyal underlings and further centralize his own power run the name of “security.”

Yet no leader rules forever.  Underlings who appeared loyal by refusing to support Pirghozhin’s ill-fated coup may be less loyal than opportunistic. Many who voiced support for Putin only did so after it became clear that Pirghozhin would not prevail. It is always possible that one of these opportunistic underlings may have found a wedge into one of those cracks that America’s Secretary of State mentions.  If so, there is a small chance that Putin could still be deposed before long.

But Putin's detractors in the West shouldn't hold their breath. Russia is not like the West where public opinion of the leader actually matters. The Russian population has been cowed into passiveness. The people have been trained to know there is nothing they can do, so whether Putin is perceived as strong or weak doesn't really matter.

All that matters is whether Putin has a single weakness that can be exploited by an ambitious underling to try and knock the dictator off of his throne. Pirgozhin tried to do this but failed. How well Putin manages to consolidate power in the coup's aftermath will ultimately decide how long it will be before the next coup attempt comes.