Washington, DC, April 30, 2024 --  

Nuclear power has stalled in America and much of the developed world. Africa may offer a new path forward.

When a new reactor began full operations in Georgia yesterday, it was a bittersweet moment for American nuclear power. While Georgia's Plant Vogtle is the first new American reactor in decades, it came in at more than double its $14 billion estimated cost and arrived seven years behind schedule.¹ The delays and red ink created by the project give American nuclear power yet another black eye. And now that Vogtle's reactor is fully operational, it has created another unwelcome statistic: as of today, there are precisely zero American nuclear plants under construction.

Fortunately, for nuclear's boosters, America has long ceased to be the center of action on nuclear power. Both China and India have been building large numbers of plants over the past decade, and plan to continue to do so, both to replace coal-fired plants and to increase capacity. This is particularly important in India where demand for electricity usage is rapidly growing along with economic prospects of what is now the most populous country in the world.

And while India and China have the world's most ambitious nuclear power programs today, it's Africa that ultimately holds the greatest promise for the future of the industry. The continent is on track to double its population to 2.5 billion by 2050.². Even modest economic growth will mean electricity demand more than doubles over this period,. And if things go well, demand will increase many fold.

Today, the continent hosts just one nuclear power plant in South Africa, a relic of its apartheid-era dual civilian and military nuclear program. A second nuclear power plant on the African continent is currently under construction in Egypt.

Several other African countries are exploring new nuclear plants, including Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso. Given huge opportunity for growth and the relative absence of an anti-nuclear sentiment on the continent, the world's nuclear industry may be poised to start a new scramble for Africa.

Ghana is perhaps the best case in point. The government has solicited bids for its first commercial power plant, engaging competing companies from the United States, China, Russia, France and South Korea.³ Such competitive bidding is unusual for African development projects, which have typically been dominated by unilateral often shady deals. Russia signed one such nuclear power deal with the South Africa's corrupt government let by disgraced former President Jacob Zuma in 2014, a deal taht was later invalidated by South African courts.⁴ More recently, Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom has signed a memorandum of agreement with the military junta currently ruling Burkina Faso, one of the poorest and seemingly least suitable nations for near-term nuclear power development.⁵

Critics of African nuclear power rightly point to these kind of corrupt agreements, and note that they promise do little more than line the pockets of those involved. Other obstacles to nuclear power in Africa include an underdeveloped electrical grid incapable of handling the output of large nuclear plants, and the high construction costs that make nuclear uncompetitive with geothermal and solar alternatives in many host countries.

Yet nuclear power in Africa should not be dismissed entirely. While Africa has plenty of opportunity to develop cheap renewable power sources, sources like solar require alternatives for when the sun is not shining. And even if all renewable options are developed, Africa's growth trajectory will likely create electricity demand that surpasses what renawables can supply. That means that without nuclear power, Africa will be forced to build more fossil-fuel plants, something that helps nobody but fossil fuel producers themselves.

Perhaps the greatest opportunity offered by Africa is that its nuclear power industory is starting from a blank slate, without all the historic baggage of expensive legacy designs found elsewhere. Over the past decade, nuclear engineers and industry boosters have been excited about Small Modular Reactors -- typically a fail-safe designs that do not require external water or power for cooling, and that are pre-assembled before installation. To date, only China and Russia have deployed SMR designs, and grand plans from Western companies in the United States, Canada, the UK, France and South Korea have made little headway due to regulatory,, public opposition and other obstacles.

But SMR designs could be ideal for deployment in Africa for several reasons. The limited electricity output of each module would more easily integrate with the existing electrical grid,. Experience gained from the first module would allow adding additional modules as the grid advances. What's more, the fail-safe passive cooling systems in these designs could allow deployment closer to underserved areas without the need to build a long distance transmission backbone from rivers, seashores, and other sites with ample cooling water required by more traditional plant designs. And the lower initial capital construction costs could help African countries avoid the debt trap often associated with large scale foreign development projects.

The lower capital and constriction costs of SNRs, however, can be a double-edged sword, particularly for countries beset by corruption. The lower the up-front cost, the less opportunity there is to skim money off the top. While this is good for meeting project goals and avoiding saddling African countries with bad debts, it can be an obstacle for earning the approval of corrupt decision-makers.

Clearly Africa is not an easy place to kick-start a nuclear renaissance. But widespread and largely irrational opposition in the developed world (and even China in the wake of the Fukushima disaster) mean that the industry has little choice but to look to new markets in order to move forward. With patience, ingenuity and a little luck, Africa may lead the world into a new nuclear powered future.

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Notes:

1. Rough Draft Atlanta, Georgia Power Completes Plant Vogtle Nuclear Project, April 29, 2024

2. Economist, Africa’s Population Will Double by 2050, March 25, 2020

3. Semafor, US and Russia are Vying to Build Ghana’s Nuclear Energy Plant, April 25, 2024

4. Associated Press, South Africa to Build New Nuclear Plants. The Opposition Attacked the Plan Over Alleged Russia Links, December 12, 2024

5. France 24, Burkina Faso Signs Agreement With Russia for Nuclear Power Plant, October 13, 2023