Puerto Morelos, Mexico, March 4, 2025 --  

Mexico has a shiny new rail system.  Too bad so few want to use it.

The new Tren Maya station near Valladolid, Mexico is a sight to behold.  The modern facility  carves a rectangular clearing out of the  forest in the northern Yucatan with its straight new tracks stretching alongside the Cancun-Merida toll road into the distance.  The Cancun station is similar but much larger, with five platforms  built to handle a massive onslaught of tourists.

$500 billion worth of shine! © 2025 David G. Young.

Except those tourists aren't coming.

The massive $515 billion rail project was completed on time last fall, but projected ridership has fallen far short of  projections, especially by tourists.¹  Just six of the passengers boarding in Valladolid on March 4 were English-speaking tourists, joined by a dozen other Mexican nationals.  At the destination Puerto Morelos station, nobody got on or off except the author and his wife.   The tourist class cars on this trip  were about half full.  Statistics for December 2023  through October of last year show that ridership is 80 percent lower than projected for that year, and just 5 percent of passengers being international tourists.²

The abysmally low tourist usage rate is critical because foreign tourists typically pay fares 30-50 percent higher fares than Mexican nationals, and this revenue is key to funding the system.  The train business is run by the Guardia Nacional, Mexico's national police force controlled by the military, and a barracks sits beside the Valladolid station.  

No overtourism here. Photo © 2025 David G. Young.

Adding to the train's financial troubles, Mexico's new President Gloria Sheinbaum recently slashed the Tren Maya budget from $6.1 billion to $1.9 billion and redirected funds to handle border relief and refugees -- part of the fallout of US President Trump's plans to crack down on migrants and deport them over the Mexican border.³

Fewer trains are now running.  Just two trains were scheduled to depart the Cancun Airport station for the Mayan Riviera on February 23 -- one early morning and one mid day -- making tourist usage practically impossible.   Unless you are arriving in Cancun on an early morning red eye from Europe, there will be no trains to meet you.

That's a shame.  The train ride is smooth and comfortable.  With speeds often reaching 100 miles per hour, it is not quite  high speed rail, but it is fast enough.  Train cars are new and modern with clean bathrooms and a simple cafe kiosk offering coffee, soft drinks and microwaved sandwiches.  Wifi does not work, but at least the charging ports do.

Emergency food only. Photo © 2025 David G. Young.

A big problem facing Tren Maya is the  competitive landscape.  The Yucatan is already well served by the ADO bus company, one of the best in the world with clean modern busses, low prices and frequent departures.  While Tren Maya offers two south bound departures daily from Cancun airport, ADO offers 43 departures daily on the same route.  Yes, you read that right:  43!  

And ADO's prices are far lower.  On the Valladolid to Cancun route, ADO charges 225 to 280 pesos depending on departure time compared to Tren Maya's 472 pesos for foreigners and 355 pesos for nationals.  And ADO operates from  stations in the center of town instead of the Tren Maya stations that are a long the highways outside of city centers.  This forces train riders to pay even more for a taxi or shuttle bus (sometimes both) to and from the station.  

Ironically, it is ADO that operates the shuttle bus to and from Valladolid's train station into the city.  The 35 peso ticket price is cheap, but it still adds to the time and cost of travel.  At Puerto Morelos station, a 55 peso shuttle takes you to the ADO bus stand by the highway, but then you still have to take a taxi to get to the main square.

Given low ridership and budget cuts, it's hard to see how the Tren Maya can succeed in attracting large numbers  tourists in the near term.  Without more frequent service it cannot be used for day trips to Mayan sites because there will be no way back without staying overnight.  

And there is even a bigger problem.  The tourism model for the Yucatan is built for package tourists staying at big beach resorts along the coast from Cancun down to Tulum.  The people at these hotels are not independent travelers who book tickets and  jump on a train.  They take chartered tour busses arranged by  their resort to destinations like the Chichen Itza ruins, the Xel-Ha amusement park, or the city of Valladolid.  And the package tourism operators are not going to pay top dollar for train transport by the Mexican National Guard when the trusty old  chartered bus is the cheapest and easiest way to go.

Building a successful tourism model around Tren Maya is not impossible, but faces stiff headwinds.  It means attracting higher-end independent travelers, ones who prefer train travel enough to pay more to use inconvenient stations out by the highway.  Such a model won't exist in the near future.  Can the Tren Maya keep going without it?

Notes:

1. Mexico Business News, Mexico Aims to Boost Tren Maya Ridership Amid Low Numbers, December 11, 2024

2. Ibid.

3.  Trains Magazine, Maya Train Budget Slashed by Mexico's President, February 11, 2025