Washington, DC, January 23, 2024 --  

American democracy will be lucky to survive 2024. Without change, it is ultimately doomed.

As former president Trump begins racking up victories in Republican primary elections, liberal-minded Americans are increasingly anxious. With most national polls showing Trump ahead or at least even in the general election¹, private talk in Washington has started to include personal exit strategies for the worst-case scenario where American democracy dies in November.

Against this dark cloud of doom are a number of wonky voices in the Democratic Party that offer rays of hope. They argue that it is still early in the election season so polls mean little², that Trump's support is weaker that Republican primaries would suggest³, and that the economy is so strong that President Biden should soon see a boost in polls⁴. Meanwhile, Democratic Party activists are working hard to improve the president's re-election chances on the ground, by increasing registration of Democratic voters and organizing to boost turnout in battleground states.

If these voices are right and activists succeed, then perhaps all hope is not lost in 2024. But even if Trump can be defeated this year, it doesn't mitigate the longer-term doom. As Trump's defeat in 2020 showed, a single election will not cure the populist disease inflicting America. Presidential elections happen every four years. If America must rely on a razor-thin one percent margin of swing voters to prevent the destruction of democracy, then democracy is doomed. Politicians who believe in democracy must win every single election. Politicians who are against democracy need only to win one.

In order to change this recipe for disaster, we must change the minds of enough illiberal Americans and steer younger Americans away from populist ideas until brainwashed older Trumpers age out of the system. The question is how?

The answer is compromise.

Around the world, the one issue that has done the most to drive international populism has been immigration. From Britain to Hungary, from South Africa to Spain, and all across middle America, the arrival of large numbers of immigrants from other cultures has done more to drive populist anger than any other single issue. The chasm between liberal-minded Americans and their populist counterparts on immigration is huge. Many of us see America as a nation of immigrants, drawing the best and brightest from around the world to make the country ever stronger. But to Trumpers, immigrants are a dangerous and undesirable human wave streaming over the southern border, stealing American jobs, committing crimes, draining our treasury, degrading our culture, and exposing us to greater risk from the next terrorist attack.

Most liberal Americans are loathe to compromise on the issue because migration, especially for those fleeing persecution, touches on fundamental human rights. But it is clear that most Americans do not support the status quo. While satisfying die-hard Thumpers is impossible, more moderate Republicans are within reach.

Yes, changing the status quo to placate more reasonable Republicans means trampling on the human rights of many thousands of would-be Americans. But is refusing to compromise worth risking the loss of our democracy? Consider that if democracy dies, the consequences for immigrants will be far worse than any compromise on the issue. So long as democracy survives, we can continue to debate the best policy on immigration (and all other issues) for many years to come.

This is the case for political centrism -- a pragmatic quest for a coalition that attracts a solid enough majority to holds the die-hard Trumpers at bay. The Republican party has rapidly devolved from its mainstream center-right tradition to become an extremist party ambivalent about democracy. The Never Trump Republicans like Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney and Chris Christie have been consigned to the political wilderness along with millions of Americans who share their views. Outrageously, the Democratic Party has done precious little to embrace these Americans, instead watching with partisan glee as infighting within the Republican party has ended the careers of Democrats' former adversaries.

This cannot continue, and one way or another, it will not. If America's democracy does not die in 2024, the Democratic Party must be converted to a big tent supported by a comfortable enough majority to hold the Trumpers at bay. Perhaps re-christened the "Democracy Party" to indicate its single unifying ideal, Never Trump Republicans should be given prominent positions in Biden's next term. So long as the anti-democracy populists remain a threat, support for democracy is the only issue that matters. Failure to recognize this means leaving democracy teetering precariously on the hairy edge until its inevitable demise.

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Notes:

1. Five Thirty Eight, Latest Polls, January. 23, 2024

2. The Hill, Democrats argue Biden is Underestimated, January 1, 2024

3. The Hill, Democrat Pritzker Says Iowa Showed ‘Weakness of Donald Trump’, January 16, 2024

4. Washington Post, Consumer Confidence Rising is Good News for Biden, January 23, 2024