Washington, DC, October 4, 2022 --  

Russia's debacle in Ukraine is weakening its influence across the former Soviet empire.

Last week's ten mile backup at Russia's Verkhnii Lars border checkpoint was filled with military-age men fleeing conscription¹. Just over the border is Georgia, a relatively free country with a strong animosity for Vladimir Putin. And just 25 miles west is another border crossing that Russia used to invade Georgia back in 2008. Ironically, as Russian men flee to over the mountains to Georgia to avoid conscription, other Russian soldiers are occupying Georgia's South Ossetian region on the other side of the ridge.

That 14-year occupation may be ripe for change. In March, Russia began redeploying some of its troops from occupied regions of Georgia to man the warn in Ukraine.² The weakening of Russia's occupation forces has not been lost on Georgians, the more nationalistic of whom want to eject Russian troops by force. Last month, Irakli Kobakhidze, the head of the Georgian Dream party suggested that these Georgians hold a plebiscite on opening a second front in the war against Russia.³

While Kobakhidze's proposal was clearly rhetorical, the idea he broached was far from crazy. Just south or Georgia, fighting in a 30-year-old border conflict on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted again when Azerbaijan resumed attacks on its Russia-backed neighbor. Russia's distraction in Ukraine, combined with rumors of a possible re-deployment of some of the region's 2000 Russian peacekeeping troops to Ukraine have clearly emboldened Azerbaijani forces to press for military advantage.⁴

Indeed, Russia's Ukraine debacle has weakened its position across the entire former Soviet empire. In Moldova, where Russia backs the separatist Transnistria region, a much anticipated land bridge with Russian forces in Ukraine failed to materialize when Russia failed to capture the neighboring region of Odessa early in the war. Since then, a pro-European Moldovan government has applied for EU membership and so-far survived calls for its resignation by Russian-backed opposition parties.⁵

In Kazakhstan the new president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has pledged to protect hundreds of thousands of Russians who entered the country to avoid mobilization -- what Tokayev called a "hopeless situation".⁶ This is particularly surprising given that Tokayev had to accept help from Russian troops to put down an internal rebellion in January. Fears that he would be forced into a Belarus-like alliance with Russia have faded. There's no doubt that Putin's perceived impotence in Ukraine has made it easier for Tokayev to assert his independence.

And even in Belarus itself, Russia's support is limited. Yes, dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko is Putin's closest ally in the world and allowed his country to be used for Russia's invasion of the Kiev region early this year. But he has so far refused to commit troops to the war, and has remained eerily silent on Russia's self-proclaimed annexation of southeastern Ukraine.

The same images of destroyed Russian tanks, sunken ships, and incompetent officers that are broadcast in the West are similarly visible across the former Soviet empire outside of Russia. And it is no surprise that these images lessen locals' fear of Russian power. Even if Russia manages to catch its footing in Ukraine and stabilize its recent losses, clearly it will be distracted in Ukraine for years, and have limited ability to impose its will on its former Soviet neighbors.

This situation is largely welcome in countries that have long cowered under Russia's imperialist thumb. This is especially so in countries like Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, that have suffered territorial losses at the hands of Russia or its proxies. For them, Russia's weakness presents a golden opportunity.

Related Web Columns:

Frozen in Time, July 12, 2022

Russia's Backyard, January 11, 2022

Notes:

1. Moscow Times, In Photos: Russians Fleeing Putin's Draft Queue at Georgian Border, October 3, 2022

2. Eurasia Daily Monitor, Russia Redeploys Troops From Its Bases in Georgia to Ukrainev, March 28, 2022

3. Euro Weekly News, Georgian Dream Party promises to hold referendum on beginning war on Russia, September 13, 2022

4. The Moscow Times, Russia Says Negotiated Ceasefire in Deadly Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Clashes, September 13, 2022

5. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Moldovan Anti-Government Protesters Set Up Tents Outside President's Residence, September 25, 2022

6. Aljaeera, Kazakhstan to ‘Ensure Safety’ of Russians Fleeing Draft, September 27, 2022