Washington, DC, December 24, 2024 --  

Iran's nuclear program is ready to build a bomb. With its back against the wall, Iran may soon pass the point of no return.

When former President George Bush declared North Korea one of the legs of the Axis of Evil in 2002, Kim Jong Il, then the leader of the reclusive country took note. Just one year later, America would invade Iraq, toppling the dictatorship of another member of Bush's so-called axis. While America was distracted with Iraq, a nervous North Korean regime made a breakout push for a nuclear weapon, withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003, and detonating its first bomb in 2006.

Today, Iran is the only surviving regime in of Bush's Axis of Evil without nuclear weapons. It's back is now against the wall after its allies in its proxy war with Israel have collapsed. Its Hamas-backed fighters in Gaza are dead or in hiding, its Syrian client state has fallen. The Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon has been shattered by Israeli pager bombs and airstrikes and is now cut off from Iranian resupply from the fall of the Syrian regime.

With members Israeli's right-wing government continuing to lobby for strikes on Iran, and a compliant Trump administration set to enter the White House in a few weeks, the risk of Iran deciding to make a breakout push to build a nuke is higher than ever.

This all sounds eerily similar to the timeline leading up to North Korea's first nuclear test. Back in the late '90s, a weakened North Korea was struggling to recover from the collapse of its Soviet benefactor and the ensuing famine. A deal with the Clinton Administration monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency kept the country's nuclear ambitions in check for nearly decade. But by the time the geopolitical landscape changed during the Axis of Evil era, the regime calculated that going nuclear was the only way to survive.

These very same thoughts are undoubtedly going through the head of Ayatolla Khamenei, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and his government ministers today. Adding to the risk is Iran's very short breakout time made possible by years of building a massively large uranium enrichment capability and a large stockpile of medium-enriched uranium. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken estimated this summer that Iran's breakout time is now just one to two weeks.¹

This makes the next month one of the most dangerous periods the nuclear age has ever known. If Iran proceeds to assemble one or more nuclear weapons, and Israel makes a decision to strike, the Middle East may suffer the first nuclear war since the atomic bombings of 1945.

Alternatively, if Iran manages to assemble nuclear weapons without using them, it will become the next North Korea -- an unattackable nuclear pariah that can act as a thorn in the side of the world, perhaps for decades to come.

More benign scenarios remain possible, but are less likely. Perhaps Israel can be persuaded to stand down from attacking Iran, and the precarious status quo of Iran staying just shy of a nuclear weapons state can remain. This is possible, but unlikely given the hothead government in Israel and an incoming pro-Israel hothead government in Washington.

The only remaining scenario is that an Israeli strike backed by the United States might manage to take out not just Iran's key nuclear weapons production facilities, but the theocratic regime itself. Damaging the facilities without taking out the regime will do nothing more than delay the date that Iran goes nuclear.

Taking out Iran's despotic theocracy sounds great, but is fraught with difficulty and risk. Many Iranians also despise the regime, but once the country is attacked by foreign powers, they will most certainly rally to its defense. If strikes do not quickly topple the government (something that would require lots of luck), a bloody full-scale war will be needed to complete the job. If things go poorly, this may have the effect of strengthening the regime by rallying the public to fight the foreigners. And even if the regime is toppled, there is no telling what forces may ultimately take over. Will a post-theocratic Iranian regime also seek nuclear weapons? Probably yes, ultimately. Inventions once made, cannot be uninvented.

This is what make the current moment in time so critical: Iran stands at a threshold that will decide the future of the region and the world. Once it builds a bomb everything will change -- there's no turning back.

Related Web Columns:

Great Satan No More, June 3, 2014

Fire the Memory Sticks, September 28, 2010

Deal With It, The Inevitibility of a Nuclear Iran, July 20, 2010

Unstoppable Disaster
The Coming Conflict with Iran, December 11, 2007

Notes:

1. CNN, Blinken Says Iran’s Nuclear Weapon Breakout Time is Probably Down to 1-2 Weeks, July 19, 2024