Washington DC, April 1, 2025 --  

Trump's disrespect for term limits and the rule of law make him an aspiring dictator. Incompetence and stupid behavior are likely to stop him.

When President Trump announced he was considering seeking a third term as president, defenders of  American democracy saw their biggest fears confirmed.  Despite the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution expressly forbidding a third presidential term, Trump is now openly discussing circumvention of that rule.¹

Trump, a populist leader who admires authoritarian colleagues  like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un, has always worried opponents that his return to the White House would see him dismantle democracy and seize power as a dictator.  Will he now do so?

Not all critics think so.  John Bolton, Trump's first-term national security advisor before a spectacular fallout, has long dismissed such fears because he says Trump "hasn't got the brains" to be a dictator.²  Bolton's critiques of two recent administration blunders highlight his argument.

Bolton's counterpart in the new Trump administration is Michael Waltz. Waltz is now infamous for accidentally inviting a journalist to a national security group chat .  Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made bad things much worse by live texting aircraft launch times.³ Such clown car antics are what a president gets when he surrounds himself with unqualified underlings chosen for loyalty over experience.  Relying on an unqualified and incompetent team is not the best way to dismantle the strong institutions of the world's oldest democracy.  

Another stupid thing Trump is known to do is run his mouth in ways that sabotage his goals. Take attempts to annex Greenland -- a policy goal John Bolton' actually agrees with. Bolton says best way to succeed is for American agents to work quietly behind the scenes to negotiate with the Danish government and locals in Greenland. Yet that can't happen when Trump is alienating the Danes and Greenlanders.⁴ He engages in loud grandstanding and bullying moves appropriate for a reality TV star and not the Machiavellian moves of an aspiring dictator. His diplomatic strategy is failing fast, leaving only a military option.

Bullying antics, though counterproductive, infuriate the opposition, something that Trump and his supporters love. What's more fun than "owning the libs"?

And this is clearly what Trump's talk about a third term is about -- he knows it will get under his enemies' skin. Given this obvious motivation, it is frustrating to hear egghead analysts in the New York Times torturing to find a greater strategy in his words.⁵ Reality check: there is no greater strategy.

Is Bolton right that Trump is too dumb? He is probably correct that many of Trump's plans that require smart, competent, qualified and experienced people are doomed to fail. DOGE will not make government more efficient. Tariffs and a trade war will not boost the American economy. Kicking out immigrants will not make America stronger. But failed plans and policies will still cause damage that will take many years for smart, competent, qualified and experienced people to even try to repair.

Worse yet, some plans are simple enough even for dumb loyalists. Loyalists are happy to fly a plane filled with deportees to El Salvador, even in defiance of a judge's order. Blind loyalists are willing break the law to serve their leader. Witness all the people who were disbarred, bankrupted, or jailed in service to Trump's baseless claim of election fraud in 2020. Clearly there is no shortage of these people -- all you need is a critical mass in the security services who will ignore judges or worse -- fire on protesters.

But there is another side to this coin. Plenty of loyal Americans will stand up to Trump when things get really bad. Many are competent Americans well able to outflank him. Recall that in January 2021, when his thuggish supporters invaded the U.S. Capitol, plenty of such people worked to thwart his will -- the US Capitol Police who did their duty to protect Congress, the congressmen who refused to leave the building and proceeded to a vote, the Vice President who certified Biden's election victory, and the Secret Service agents who defied President Trump 's order to take him to the Capitol building.

This is how all dumb dictators -- and aspiring dumb dictators -- lose power. They surround themselves with yes men and start believing their own propaganda and omnipotence until they overreach and are put down by their opponents and the regime's defectors. This is how things ended for Trump in January 2021, and unless his health fails the obese 78-year-old first, this is how his current term is likely to end. If that sounds like good news, then think again. Who knows what condition America will be in when that day comes.

Notes:

1. NBC News, Trump Won’t Rule Out Seeking a Third Term in the White House, March 30, 2025

2. Guardian, Ex-Trump Adviser Says Former President ‘Hasn’t Got the Brains’ for Dictatorship, March 30, 2024

3. Politico, Reckless and Dangerous’: Hegseth Leaked Sensitive Attack Details, Officials Say, March 26, 2025

4. NPR, John Bolton on expanding into Greenland, February 11, 2024

5. New York Times, The Strategy Behind Tump's Repeated Musings About a third Term, March 31, 2025