Washington, DC, November 12, 2024 --  

America's 2024 election was the nail in the coffin for the 30-year-old Washington Consensus.

When Democrats woke up the day after the 1994 election, panic had already turned to depression.  Worrying poll numbers leading up to election day had gone even worse than expected.  By the time the dust had settled, the party had lost both the Senate and the House of Representatives, stunningly losing a net 54 seats in the House, 8 in the Senate.  In a symbolic blow, even Speaker of the House Tom Foley had lost his seat.

While 1994 was the worst election result for the Democratic Party in the past century, 2024 may turn out to be even more monumental.  This year, the Democrats lost the presidency and the Senate, giving Donald Trump's Republican Party control of all three branches of government.  While the size of the Republican shift this year was much smaller than in 1992, the stakes were much higher.  Vice President Harris denounced Trump as a fascist and gained the endorsement of several high profile Republicans also concerned about Trump's fitness for office and commitment to democracy.  Yet the Democrats still lost every swing state and the popular vote.

In 1994 and 2024 alike, the morning after the election led to intense soul searching by the Democrats.  Why did this happen?  Where did they go wrong?  How does the party move forward?  

President Bill Clinton answered those questions definitively in 1994 by embracing much of the Republican platform and adopting more centrist policies.  He declared that "the era of big government is over" and abandoned a push by fellow Democrats to increase social spending as part of the post-Cold War "peace dividend." The new liberal consensus -- dubbed "the Washington consensus" saw both Democrats and Republicans support a free market economy, reduced trade barriers, limits on taxes and spending, and support for human rights around the world.

That liberal movement is now at its end.  It took many hits over the years, first from the wars of the 2000s, then from the rise of nationalism in China and populism around the world.  Trump's takeover of the Republican party in 2016 ended the consensus in America's two-party system in favor of protectionism and a retreat on human rights.  But with Democratic party the same liberal belief system largely lived on -- until last Tuesday.

Trump's has successfully attracted working-class Democrats, first from white Americans, then from Cuban-Americans and other Latinos and even making inroads with African-American men.  For decades, election maps of Republican-leaning Texas always showed a solid blue strip of  southern counties along the Rio Grande valley.  This year, those counties turned red along with the rest of the state, signaling the Republicans' complete capture of working class support.

In order to remain competitive, Democrats are poised to abandon the liberal ideals they have embraced since 1994 and the "soccer mom" target demographic they once prized.   The new target demographic is working-class America.  This will embolden Democrats who argue that left-wing populism will win voters in the Rio Grande valley and the rust belt.  Policy platforms will look more like those of Bernie Sanders than Joe Biden: unionization, higher minimum wages, a minimum guaranteed income, trade protectionism, and subsidization of domestic manufacturing.  

In other words: if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

For educated Americans who continue to believe in an out-of-fashion liberal ideal, choices will be limited. America's two party system will offer a depressing choice between an ugly authoritarian populist right, and a slightly less ugly and authoritarian populist left.  

If opponents' worst fears about Trump come to pass, this will be a moot point -- there won't be another election for Democrats to try again.  Fortunately that is not a sure thing -- American institutions may prove strong enough to weather the inevitable attempt by Trump and his allies to dismantle them.  

Either way, liberal-thinking Americans face a dark future:  an end to democracy at worst, and an end to liberalism at best.