Washington, DC, February 7, 2023 --  

Deteriorating relations between China and America make war look likely. If history is any comfort, it will more likely be a cold war than a hot one.

As the smoke cleared from the U.S. downing of a Chinese spy balloon that had crossed the country¹, the real action was taking place a half a world away.

Just three days earlier the Philippines granted the United States access to staging bases on China’s doorstep.  Two new bases are planned for Cagayan province on the northernmost edge of the Philippines, less than 200 miles from the coast of Taiwan.²

An existing base, on Palawan Island, borders the South China Sea where China has militarized a number oaf small islands and claimed the entirety of the body of water.  

In the event of war between the U.S. and China — likely triggered by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan —these bases would be activated to defend Taiwan and engage Chinese forces in the area.  The Philippines would be rapidly drawn into the war on America’s side.   Japan would be similarly drawn in as host to U.S. bases on Okinawa just to the north of Taiwan.

China got a hint of what this might look like last October, when American Marines headquartered in Okinawa held simultaneous joint exercises with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.³ These included landing aircraft on Basco island, just 120 miles from the southern tip of Taiwan.

Unlike the United States, China has few regional military allies. The only exceptions, North Korea, and to a limited extent, Russia, are both countries where domestic interests far eclipse any of China's larger ambitions. This lack of allies is not likely to change as China's bullying continues to alienate nearly all of its neighbors, sending even former American enemies like Vietnam into rapprochement with Washington.

While a shooting war is not inevitable, a new Cold War between China and America has clearly begun.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has cancelled a trip designed to sooth rising tensions, and as a result, tensions are likely to rise even further in the near term.

The U.S. has been slowly moving in this direction for the past five years. It has started blocking Chinese access to U.S. technology as the two giants decouple their economies.  And America’s strategic ambiguity toward defending Taiwan is becoming less ambiguous with each passing day.

U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is widely believed to be planning a visit to Taiwan, and has said the Chinese Communist Party cannot tell him where he can and cannot go.⁴  When Speaker Nancy Pelosi also visited Taiwan last fall, China responded with massive air and sea incursions in Taiwanese waters that nearly surrounded the island.

Yet tensions probably will not boil over.    Remember that the Cold War with the Soviet Union lasted  four decades without a direct military conflict.  Each time tensions rose too much, one or both sides appealed for calm.

Clearly Chinese President  Xi Jinping has been testing the resolve of the United States for the past year, goaded on by doubts about the Biden administration’s resolve, especially in the wake of America’s humiliating exit from Afghanistan.

But the same administration has since taken strong stance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s bullying of Taiwan, while expanding U.S. military activity in East Asia. As Xi cannot be blind to the consequences of his testing, expect him to begin backing off.  

That doesn’t mean the challenge from China will be over, just that it will likely moderate its tempo over the months to come.  

Notes:

1, CNN, Why the Chinese Balloon Crisis Could be a Defining Moment in the New Cold War, February 6, 2023

2. Financial Times, Philippines Grants US Access to Four Military Bases, February 2, 2023

3. Overt Defense, U.S. Marines Strengthen Interoperability with Philippine Counterparts at KAMANDAG, November 3, 2022

4. National Public Radio, Chinese Balloon Punctures Blinken's Plans, Leaving U.S.-China Ties Adrift, Februrary 3, 2023