Washington, DC, August 22, 2023 --  

Argentina's bombastic presidential candidate vows to tear down a rotten system. What else will he take down with it?

Much like Ayn Rand, Milei has few kind words for the establishment. In his victory speech last Sunday, he called the ruling class as a "parasitic, criminal political caste that is sinking this country."¹ And while he styles himself a libertarian, his social positions to appeal to a broader conservative base. Milei favors outlawing abortion in all but the most extreme situations.² He has also rhetorically denounced novel transgender language constructs while maintaining that sexual identity is an individual right.³

The global press paints Milei as the Argentine Donald Trump. Yes, Milei shares Bolsonaro and Trump's disdain for the Left-wing establishment, and clearly he admires Trump's ability to channel public anger. And yes, he speaks with bombastic pronouncements that give him an overflowing record of outrageousness. But even a cursory look at Milei's policy positions makes the Trump comparison fall flat.

Milei's prescriptions are almost diametrically opposite those of Trump and Bolsonaro. Rather than seeking protectionism, Milei vows to eliminate it. And rather than bolstering his national currency, he vows to destroy it.

Given the rotten system that plagues Argentina, this may be justified. The country suffers decades-long currency erosion with high inflation and a sagging exchange rate against the dollar. The government repeatedly defaults on its bonds and freezes bank accounts to stop its citizens from taking their money to safety.

People basking in the stability of the US or EU have a hard time understanding. Whenever Argentina limits bank withdrawals during devaluations, it steals the life savings of millions of regular people. Suffering this financial gut punch over and over, Argentines no longer trust the government nor the peso. They now save in U.S. Dollars, either stuffed under the mattress or in dollar denominated accounts, preferably overseas.

Milei has channeled righteous anger over this repeated theft. He wants to eliminate the Argentine Peso, switch the country to use the U.S. Dollar, and eliminate the central bank. This sounds dangerously radical to those in the US and EU. But it is music to the ears of those who have lost their life savings again and again. Given that many Argentines already hoard U.S. Dollars for savings, and that smaller countries like Ecuador, Panama, Zimbabwe and El Salvador have already dollarized, the idea is hardly out of the question.

Yet the global establishment is alarmed. The same brashness and bile that makes Milei attractive to his supporters fuels the opposition of his detractors. How we trust a leather-wearing, bushy-sideburned television personality who once bragged about sex parties?

Milei is hardly the first television or film personality to transition to politics. Both America's Ronald Regan and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky started as on-screen celebrities and political novices. Both proved wildly successful both on the domestic and international stages. Zelensky faced similar questions about his true identity. Some even suspected Zelensky was a Russian mole.

A bigger concern comes from Milei's political allies. His tiny Partido Libertario had to join a coalition of right-wing parties called La Libertad Avanza. Some members are unsavory. Unite por la Libertad y la Dignidad is reminiscent of Iberian fascists, supporting government income guarantees and institutionalized social action. Other parties are more populist in nature. If Milei manages to come out on top in October's general election or a runoff, he will have to make concessions.

Milei's highly combative temperament suggests he would be ill-suited to this compromise or other aspects of governing. Milei has none of the affable nature of Zelensky or Reagan. In this respect, he is more akin to Lech Walesa, the Polish dissident turned post-communist president who heroically tore down the old system but proved terrible at governing. If Milei wins, don't expect him to last.

Perhaps the biggest concern about Milei is that he may not stand behind Argentina's liberal democracy. In other "outsider" administrations across the Americas, reluctance to circumvent democracy has faded as poll numbers have sagged.

This is the greatest reason for alarm about Milei. In the wake of America's 2020 vote, Milei went on TV and said he believed that Democrats had stolen the election and that the prospect of Tump losing power was a threat to Western civilization.⁴ Was this just bombast? While there is no record of Milei in undermining Argentine democracy, he has not yet had the chance. And that is the risk -- whenever someone promises to blow up the system, it is valid to worry about exactly what parts will get destroyed in the process.

Notes:

1. New York Times, Far-Right Libertarian Wins Argentina’s Presidential Primary, August 14, 2023

2. Buenos Aires Times, Javier Milei and His Beliefs – In His Own Words, August 21, 2023

3. Compact, Can a Gonzo Libertarian Save Argentina? August 15, 2023

4. Canal 9, Break Point, November 2020