Washington DC, March 18, 2025 --  

The Trump-Putin axis has been giving Ukraine an awful month. Might Europe finally step up and defend the continent?

It's hard to imagine a more discouraging month for a Ukraine.  It lost its only foothold on Russian territory in the Kursk province after seeing its leading ally taken over by a pro-Russian regime.  Today Trump held a second round of talks with Putin over Ukraine's fate, with Ukrainians completely shut out of the discussion.  

If every cloud has a silver lining, as the cliche goes, any silver lining for the cloud hanging over Ukraine would be a doozy.  Yet there is a slim possibility that it could exist.

For over 10 years since Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea and covertly sent troops into Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, Ukraine's European neighbors have been living with their heads stuck in the sand.  Many allocated little more than 1 percent of GDP to defense despite a well-armed growling bear scratching on their eastern frontier.  Russia's full-scale Ukrainian invasion in 2022 partly put a stop to that, and most NATO members have increased defense spending to 2 percent of GDP.  But this is still anemic compared to the 2023 expenditures of Russia (5.9 percent) and the United States (3.3 percent).¹

Since 2022 the United States has been Ukraine's chief patron, sending it more cash, ammunition and weapons systems than the all European countries combined.  While certainly worthy of American support, it is crazy that the European have not done more, especially given that their heads are the ones that would be on the chopping  block should Putin win in Ukraine and proceed to push west.

Let's be clear: the European have the resources to stand up and defend themselves.  The combined GDP of the EU and UK (23 trillion) is nearly as high as the United States (30 trillion)².  Yet they refuse to do so, largely because the United States' military engagement has  enabling their freeloading behavior.  They spend their tax dollars on feel-good things like subsidies and social welfare.

If you think this sounds a bit like a Donald Trump speech, you are right.  But to use another cliche, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

If the European were to step up and defend themselves in their own counties, the continent,  and on the Ukrainian frontier, the world would be a much better place.  And  Trump's dramatic turn against Ukraine, ugly and horrible  as it is, might be just the kick in the ass Europe needs.

Since the Oval Office shouting match between Zelenskyy, Trump and  Vice PresidentVance, both UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Macron have spoken out in defense of Ukraine and Zelenskyy, with Starmer acknowledging that Europe "must do the heavy lifting".³ But these countries must offer more than words.   What is required is a sea change -- spending not just 1 to 2 percent of GDP on defense, but upwards of 5 percent to make up for past nelect.  This must include increased weapons production, an increase in troop levels, and an increase in training and engagement on Europe's eastern flank. 

Fortunately, there is now some talk of this -- the European Commission and the European Investment Bank have come up with a plan to float bonds and allow more deficit spending by EU member countries in order to eliminate obstacles to military spending hikes.⁴

Yet in Europe's two biggest military powers, France and the UK, political impediments abound.  France's parliament is divided, with the largest share of seats going to the isolationist and pro-Putin party of Jean-Marie Le Pen, which like Trump wants to turn is back on Ukraine. 

In the UK, Starmer's Labor party controls parliament but is composed of members far more interested in social spending than defense increases.  Starmer's  announced plan to increase defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, far less than what is needed, and only at the expense of foreign aid.⁵ Getting to the 5 percent needed means making social spending cuts, tax increases, or running large deficits hat members are unlikely to support.

What is needed for politicians to get there is a change in public attitudes, something that may not be  impossible given the anti-European bile spewing forth from the drama queen  in the Oval Office.  

Time will tell.  What is clear is that Ukraine will not fall to Russia overnight, even without American aid -- the European will be able to keep them going for some time, perhaps by brokering a deal to supply it with South Korean-made  munitions.  And Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian are unlikely to be bullied into a bad peace deal with the Russians just because Donald Trump wants it.  The war will continue while Europe mulls both its future and that of Ukraine.

The best case scenario is that the Trump-led American betrayal of Ukraine will force Europe to stand up its military to defend itself for a change, using the war in Ukraine and a European distaste for Trump as a rallying point to get it done.

While this may not come to pass, it nevertheless offers a much needed ray of hope for a very dark time.

Related Web Columns:

Time to Step Up, November 26, 2024

Notes:

1. World Bank, 2023 Military Spending as a Percentage of GDP, as posted March 18, 2025

2. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2024

3. Politico, More Governments Pledge to Join UK and France in Sending Peacekeepers to Ukraine, March 2, 2025  

4. Reuters, EU proposes borrowing 150 billion Euros in Big Rearmament Push, March 4, 2025

5. BBC News,  Starmer Cuts Aid to Fund Increase in Defense Spending, February 25, 2025