Washington, DC, November 26, 2024 --  

The Russian army is conquering territory on the doorstep of the European Union. With America poised to disengage, it's time for European nations to step up to the challenge.

Of all those bracing for impact from America's surprise election result this month, it's hard to imagine anyone in a worse position than Ukraine. President-Elect Donald Trump has pledged to end the war within a day of taking office. Given his history of cozying up to Vladimir Putin and his antipathy toward foreign engagements, any Trump-brokered peace deal is unlikely to be favorable for Ukraine. After nearly three years of bloody war, Ukraine faces loss of its largest ally and benefactor in America, then permanent dismemberment and subjugation by Moscow.

For Americans who care about democracy and open society, the plight of Ukraine is largely theoretical -- it's all about values and a vision for the world. Americans have always been divided about these topics. Yesteryear's America Firsters, who never cared much about the theoretical, kept America out of Europe's wars for long periods in the 1910s and 1930s. Once again, a slim majority of Americans sympathetic to these views are makingAmerica's turn its back on Europe.

For Europeans, this isn't theoretical at all. The stakes in Ukraine are much higher for Europe and the war is quite a practical matter. Putin has threatened to attack NATO territory in Poland and the Baltics in retaliation for NATO support of Ukraine. The Kherson front line is just 200 miles from the NATO frontier in Romania. Russian territory outside the combat zone borders NATO members Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

At its heart, the war in Ukraine has always been a European war. It pits authoritarian Russia against its historic cousins in Ukraine in a bid to stop them from leaving Moscow's world and joining Western European clubs of NATO and the European Union. If Moscow succeeds, it may be emboldened to enforce the same view on its other former European provinces of Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Given such high stakes, it is crazy that America has been the lead backer of Ukraine's military for the past two and a half years. That role should have always gone to Germany, France or the United Kingdom. But in the 80 years since America led the liberation of Western Europe from the Nazis, Europeans have become lazy about defense, preferring to have the United States spend its treasure and risk its blood to defend the European continent. This has long been one of Trump's chief complaints about NATO. And on this point he is absolutely right.

But here's a prediction: Barring an imminent collapse of Ukrainian lines, Trump will not stop the war in Ukraine on his first day in office. The stakes for Ukraine are too high for any Ukrainian politician to agree to Russian terms. Any such Ukrainian peacemaker would lose all popular support, requiring Russian bodyguards to prevent assassination.

But if Ukraine is going to try and fight on, it needs a new leader amongst its western allies, and its leading candidate is UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This week he was lobbied by French President Emannuel Macron to put British boots on the ground in Ukraine in the form of advisers and trainers, but most importantly as a show of commitment to the cause.¹ The idea was first voiced by Macron to send French forces before a loss in parliamentary elections made it nearly impossible for him to move the idea forward. While Starmer has more political room to maneuver, his government still announced today that it remains committed to keeping troops out of Ukraine.²

More practical forms of commitment by the UK are still possible. Most important would be a massive increase in military aid to fill the American vacuum . But Starmer faces domestic headwinds constraining his fiscal leverage. Any increase in aid will require wider support from large countries like Germany, Poland that are more directly in Putin's crosshairs.

Front-line Poland has increased its defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP³, currently the leader in the European NATO. Given its shared history with Ukraine, and its history of invasion and subjugation by Russia, it has plenty of motivation to keep up the fight. Germany, which also suffered Russian invasion and subjugation, has the highest defense budget in Europe after Russia, at an estimated $90 billion for 2024.⁴ Clearly, Germany could afford to do more.

But given the size of America's military aid to Ukraine -- the $61 billion was allocated in April 2024 represents two-thirds of Germany's entire defense budget -- replacing American largess will be hard to do. Yet given ample will, it is hardly impossible. Consider that the GDP of the EU is over 10 times that of Russia. Will Europe step up to defend Europe from Russia now that push is coming to shove? As Russian forces push slowly westward, soon we will know the answer.

Related Web Columns:

Deal With the Devil, August 20, 2024

A Frano-American Surrender, June 11, 2024

Notes:

1. Le Monde, Guerre en Ukraine : L’envoi de Militaires Européens en Discussion, November 25, 2024

2. Politico, UK: We’re Not Sending Troops Into Ukraine ‘At This Time’, November 26, 2024

3. Reuters, Poland Leads NATO on Defence Spend - But Can it Afford It? October 23, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-leads-nato-defence-spend-can-it-afford-it-2024-10-23/

4. NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2024), June 12, 2024

5. Council on Foreign Relations, How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine? September 27, 2024