Washington, DC, June 13, 2023 --  

Threats of war with Russia and China won't last forever. The West must tread carefully until they fade away.

Consider that demographic trends will not be kind to Ukraine, Russia or China. Ukraine is expected to lose most of its population in the next century due to low birth rates and emigration. China and Russia are also projected to lose large amounts of their population for the same reasons.¹ Does it make sense to focus so much attention today on threatening countries that might eventually fade away?

The case of China was accentuated last month when the country was surpassed by fast-growing India which overtook it to become the largest country by population in May.² The ranking doesn't matter so much, but the size of the working age population does, and that peaked in China about a decade ago. As the nation's workforce declines over the next century, China will face downward pressure on its economy.

And while the UN estimates that China will still have twice the population of the United States in 2100 (1065 million vs. 464 million, respectively), its economy may not manage to surpass that of America. Many rapidly industrializing countries end up caught in what is known as the "middle income trap" when wages rise to the point where they lose their competitive advantage. China's population decline will exacerbate exacerbate exactly these kinds of wage increases, causing the economy to stagnate in coming years.

The more dramatic population declines in Ukraine are a legacy of economic decline during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Those who could leave Ukraine's stagnation departed for Western Europe, Canada and the United States. And those who remained often did not have children -- a decision influenced by fears about the country's limited economic opportunity and physical security. And this was all before the war, which has sent millions fleeing the country, many of whom will never return. UN estimates project that Ukraine will never again regain the population it had before the war.³

Though not as dramatic, Russia has faced similar population declines for similar reasons. And while the wartime exodus has not been as large, between 500,000 and 1 million Russians are estimated to have left, many of them fighting age men in their prime working years.⁴ Many of these Russians will probably never return, adding to the trend of bright young Russians seeking opportunity in the West. In such a situation, Russia cannot hope to keep up with its adversaries.

Given that Russia and China may be fading powers, why on earth should the West focus so much money and attention on them? Rather than confronting them in Ukraine and Taiwan, why not just wait them out and watch their slow decline?

While it would be great if this were possible, the sad truth is that fading powers can still unleash terrible destruction on a world using what power they have today. Indeed, the perception of being backed against a wall may exacerbate such countries' tendencies to lash out.

Russia continues to have the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, capable of destroying the world 's great cities many times over.⁵ And while it may not be able to win a conventional war against the West, it can cause a huge amount of death and economic destruction in the process.

The same goes for China (even though it has a smaller nuclear arsenal), with the extra caveat that its dominance in global manufacturing puts an economic chokehold on the West. Allowing such concentration of economic power in the hands of a repressive Communist state was never a good idea, and the world will have to live with the consequences for many decades.

In short, while China and Russia may not be long-term problems, they certainly are near term problems. The West must try to contain their aggressiveness until their threats pass while somehow avoiding triggering World War III.

Of course, any discussion of demographic trends must also recognize that trends often change. The mass export of workers from today's Ukraine and Russia looks similar to that of Ireland at the turn of the last century. Ireland was then a hopelessly poor country under British domination. Nobody then would have predicted it would earn its independence, achieve higher economic growth rates than its former rulers in the UK, surpass them in living standards, and start drawing economic migrants from other parts of Europe.

And dramatic change today is not even needed to make dramatic changes in the future. Like China, most European countries also face population declines due to low birth rates. But just small changes in cultural attitudes toward family, emigration and tolerance for immigrants can tip the balance. Such changes in either China and Europe could turn them toward population growth and economic vitality. Unfortunately for national leaders, forcing desirable changes from the top down is nearly impossible.

One way or another, change will come. In the next decades, Europe and China will likely get smaller and Africa will probably get a lot larger. And should America manage to avoid World War III, it will probably hold its own -- growing ever more rich and diverse from migrants from all the troubled corners of the globe.

Related Web Columns:

Time to Back Off, February 7, 2023

Fearless Neighbors, January 24, 2023

Notes:

1. Pew Research Center, For World Population Day, a Look at the Countries With the Biggest Projected Gains – and Losses – by 2100, July 10, 2019

2. BBC News, Most Populous Nation: Should India Rejoice or Panic? May 1, 2023

3. Intellinews, UN Projects Ukraine’s Population Will Never Recover From War, August 24, 2022

4. Washington Post, Russians Abandon Russia in Historic Exodus, February 13, 2023

5. Federation of American Scientists, Status Of World Nuclear Forces, March 31, 2023