Washington, DC, October 3, 2023 --  

The collapse of the Armenian regime in Nagorno-Karabakh does not bode well for the Russian outpost in Transnistria.

Just under a thousand miles to the west, another breakaway republic in a frozen conflict from the same era is on increasingly shaky ground. Transnistria, a sliver of territory along the river between Moldova and Ukraine seceded from Moldova in 1991 with the backing of the Russian-dominated remnants of the old Soviet Army.

The government of Nagorno-Karabakh -- which calls itself the "Republic of Artsakh" -- agreed two weeks ago to dissolve itself by the end of the year. This eliminates one of the few slivers of territory in the world with diplomatic recognition of Transnistria, which formally calls itself the "Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic." Reports of Azerbaijan's arrest of the leader of Nagorno-Karabakh last Wednesday as he tried to flee to Armenia² probably aren't helping Transnistria President Vadim Krasnoselsky sleep well at night.

Just a few miles West of the capitol of Tiraspol is Muldovan controlled territory, and just a few miles east is Ukraine. Both are hostile to Transnistria. The land bridge of occupied southern Ukraine that links Russia with Crimea was once expected to stretch all the way to Transnistria, linking the Russian-speaking capital of Tiraspol with the motherland. But the Russian invasion petered out long before it got there, leaving Transnistria well behind the front lines.

The war between Ukraine and Russia has left Transnistria in a precarious situation. Ukraine eyes it warily as a Russian base on its Western border, where a dwindling Russian military presence claims to function as "peacekeepers" and to guard an old Soviet ammunition dump. Troop rotations of Russian forces were blocked by Moldova back in 2015³ and since then new Russian recruits have come entirely from Transnistria itself. Understandably few young men in the region are interested in signing up for a Russian army at war, and Ukrainian intelligence claims that desertions have become a problem.⁴

Authorities in Transnistria have wisely remained neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine, despite publicly voicing a desire to join the Russian Federation much like separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces. The region is surrounded by Ukraine and Moldova, both of which would like to see it cease to exist. But so long as Transnistria minds its own business, Ukraine is surely content to ignore it and focus on fighting the Russians on its eastern and southern fronts.

There are also two more frozen conflicts exist in the former Soviet Union on the territory of former Soviet Georgia. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia seceded from Georgia and have been occupied by Russian forces since the 2008 Georgia-Russia war. But unlike Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh, these secessionist territories share a border with Russia, so they are easy to resupply. Russia has since recognized their independence, but stopped short of annexation.

Russia also recognized the independence of the secessionist Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine just before it invaded the country. Last fall it annexed the two regions along with Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces liking Russia to Crimea. Crimea was also annexed by Russia back in 2014.

While the leaders of Transnistria would love achieve similar annexation, this looks unlikely. Barring a dramatic turnaround in favor of the Russians in Ukraine, the fate of Transnistria is likely to look a lot like Nagorno-Karabakh. Separated from mother Russia by hundreds of miles of hostile territory, its hard to imagine any other end-game without a total Russian victory over Ukraine. One way or another, the final days of Transnistria are probably upon us.

Related Web Columns: Golden Opportunity, October 4, 2022

Notes:

1. National Public Radio, Azerbaijan Moves to Reaffirm Control of Nagorno-Karabakh as the Armenian Exodus Slows, October 3, 2023 https://www.npr.org/2023/10/02/1203150145/azerbaijan-moves-to-reaffirm-control-of-nagorno-karabakh-ats-the-armenian-exodus-

2. PBS News Hour, Azerbaijan Arrests Fleeing Former Head of Separatist Government After Recapturing Nagorno-Karabakh, September 27, 2023 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/azerbaijan-arrests-fleeing-former-head-of-separatist-government-after-recapturing-nagorno-karabakh

3. Balkan Insight, Moldova Defends Action, Blocking Russian Troop Rotation in Transnistria, July 22, 2022

4. Ukrainska Pravda, People in Transnistria Refuse to Sign Contracts With Russian Army – Ukrainian Intelligence, September 8, 2022 https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/8/7366689/